Amid the pandemic, a fascinating study published in JAMA Internal Medicine reveals an intriguing trend among Republican and Democratic voters in Ohio and Florida. It appears that Republican voters had a significantly higher rate of excess deaths after the nationwide rollout of COVID-19 vaccines compared to their Democratic counterparts.
During the period from March 2020 to April 1, 2021, both parties experienced similar surges in excess deaths. However, after April 1, when all adults in both states became eligible for vaccination, a striking gap emerged in the rate of excess deaths between Republican and Democratic voters. Republicans had an excess death rate 7.7 percentage points higher than their blue counterparts, resulting in a significant 43 percent difference in excess death rates.
This study goes beyond previous research by examining the connection between political party affiliation and deaths at the individual level, rather than just at the county level. The researchers, all from Yale University, focused on Ohio and Florida due to the availability of public data on voter registration in these states.
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The study analyzed death data on 538,159 individuals aged 25 and older in Ohio and Florida, along with their linked voter registration files. While the researchers did not have complete data on cause of death or vaccination status, they were able to evaluate excess weekly deaths based on age, state, county, and party affiliation. Interestingly, they found that the gap in excess deaths was more pronounced in counties with lower vaccination rates, suggesting that the lower vaccination rates among Republican voters may contribute to the higher death rates.
Therefore, the researchers concluded that “well-documented differences in vaccination attitudes and reported uptake between Republican and Democratic voters may have been factors in the severity and trajectory of the pandemic.”
However, it is important to acknowledge the limitations of this study. Political affiliation may serve as a proxy for other underlying risk factors, such as medical conditions or socioeconomic status (although the gap in excess death rates only appeared after the vaccine rollout). Additionally, adherence to other health measures, such as social distancing and mask-wearing, may also contribute to the political divide. The researchers suggest that further research is needed to untangle all the possible factors at play.
In the meantime, it is crucial to recognize that the increased health risks faced by Republicans could persist as the pandemic continues. Despite the fact that over 270 million Americans (81.4 percent) have received at least one dose of the vaccine, there are still more than 50 million adults who have not completed a primary series, putting them at higher risk of death and severe illness. Moving forward, public health efforts should not only focus on booster campaigns for the vaccinated but also on addressing vaccine hesitancy and refusal among the unvaccinated. To date, COVID-19 has claimed the lives of over 1.1 million people in the US.
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As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the country, the divisive nature of politics can be seen played out on the ground in two key swing states: Ohio and Florida.
Both experiencing far fewer cases and deaths relative to the US average, both Republican-led states are nevertheless still feeling the strain of the virus even months after vaccines have started being distributed. Republican leadership in both states has so far attempted to chart an independent course away from federal guidance, with death rates in each state remaining perilously high relative to other parts of the country.
In Florida, the state has seen more than 750,000 cases as well as over 18,000 deaths, with the death rate remaining stubbornly high despite the majority of residents being eligible for the vaccine. While Governor Ron DeSantis has been generous with the availability of doses, it seems that the state’s vaccine rollout has not been able to keep up with the current outbreak.
Meanwhile, Ohio has seen a much larger decline in cases and deaths since a statewide stay-at-home order was issued back in December. Governor Mike DeWine has also received praise for the timely issuing of vaccines to some of the most vulnerable residents in the state. However, with the current death rate in Ohio now surpassing the national average, it appears that many are still contracting the virus even as the vaccines are being distributed.
Whilst Republicans in both states have made efforts to tackle the pandemic, the partisan divide appears to be impacting the effectiveness of containment measures. With an increasing number of conservative states still struggling to contain the virus, the starkly different strategies employed by Democrat and Republican states suggest that there is still much that needs to be done to ensure a successful rollout of the vaccine and a successful containment of the virus.
It remains to be seen whether the current divide can be bridged and whether the same issues can be overcome in other states. With the vaccination campaign in the US still ongoing, it looks to be a long but necessary journey to ensure the virus is suppressed.
