Climate change has the potential to unleash feedbacks that drive even more warming, and one of these feedbacks has a very human element: air conditioning. The production of electricity, which emits a lot of carbon dioxide, leads to increased use of air conditioning due to the heat it generates. This, in turn, drives further emissions, creating a dangerous feedback loop that can only be broken by greening the electrical grid.
A new report released this week examines the impact of air conditioning on our climate goals. It compares how often air conditioning is likely to be used in a world with 2°C of warming, our backup goal, versus a world where we achieve our primary goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. The results show that the difference is significant, but the impacts are not evenly spread between countries.
Absolute and relative unpleasantness
There is no objective measure for when air conditioning should come on, as people have different heat tolerances and many do not have access to air conditioning. However, studies often use a measure called cooling degree days, which calculates the number of degrees by which the target temperature is exceeded. This provides an indication of both the need for cooling equipment and the intensity of its usage.
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For this new study, a UK-based team used climate models to simulate different scenarios. They calculated the typical temperatures in each region of the world for both +1.5°C and +2.0°C conditions. These results were then used to determine the cooling degree days for each scenario.
The researchers compared the absolute difference between the two worlds, which represents the total number of additional cooling degree days caused by the additional warming. This can be seen as a misery index, indicating how much worse conditions will be in a specific location.
The second measure is a preparedness index, which considers the relative change. Places that rarely experience cooling-degree days in a 1.5°C world may have a large relative difference if they suddenly experience dozens of such days with the additional heat. These countries likely lack access to air conditioning equipment and the necessary power grid to cope with this unprecedented burden.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently revealed the countries most affected by a two-degree rise in global warming. According to the report, the rise in global average temperature has already surpassed 1.2 degrees Celsius and is projected to exceed two degrees factor by 2050. The detrimental effects of this temperature rise present a considerable threat to life on the planet, but some countries will bear the brunt of the risk posed by this phenomenon more than others.
The WMO report analyzed the most vulnerable countries with respect to economic costs, human health, and environmental risks posed by global warming and climate change. According to the findings, the most affected countries are those located near the equator, where the effects of rising temperatures are more dramatic in terms of heatwaves, flooding, and extreme weather events.
Those countries include: Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Cameroon. These countries are the most exposed to extreme heat and health risks, and will suffer the loss of sea life, agriculture, and other fragile ecosystems due to the temperature rise. Additionally, these countries are also likely to experience more frequent and extreme droughts and floods as global warming intensifies.
The report further highlighted the need for mitigation efforts to reduce the effects of global warming on poverty-stricken regions where some of these countries are found. Additionally, the development of more resilient agricultural systems, better water management, and the protection of vulnerable ecosystems must be implemented to avoid even more dire consequences.
It is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is a real and growing threat to the world, and it is vital for governments to take the necessary measures to reduce the impact of this phenomenon. The WMO report showed that although all countries will be affected, certain countries are disproportionately exposed to the risks of a two-degree rise in global warming, and concerted efforts to protect the most affected nations are essential.
